Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has has something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
